Benazir Bhutto Assassinated

The Pakistani opposition leader and former Prime Minister Benazir Bhutto was assassinated today in the city of Rawalpindi, just south of the capital Islamabad. She was shot twice at close range by a gunman who then blew himself up in a suicide bombing. Bhutto was taken to a nearby hospital but was not able to be saved, and died at about 6 PM Pakistani time.

Bhutto's supporters believe that Musharraf is behind the assassination. I'm not so sure I agree with that. Al Qaeda has already claimed responsibility, but then why wouldn't they? Bill Roggio is of the opinion that this attack was carried out by Al Qaeda and the Taliban with a likely assistance of sympathizers/infiltrators in the Pakistani military and Inter Services Intelligence (Pakistani intelligence agency). That makes sense because the ISI helped create the Taliban in the mid 1990s. Additionally, Al Qaeda and the Taliban have repeatedly threatened to kill Bhutto.

In a country already unstable, this assassination could be the start of a very dangerous time for Pakistan. This will ratchet up the tension between the opposition and Musharraf. Additionally, the chaos could create an opening for Al Qaeda, the Taliban, and other Islamists in the Northwest Frontier Province to take advantage of the situation.

This could very likely plunge Pakistan into political rioting and (hopefully not) civil war. The opposition already does not trust Musharraf, in this assassination will clearly exacerbate that serious distrust. This comes at an especially bad time because the Pakistani parliamentary elections are set to be held on January 8. A result of this assassination could be that two major opposition parties (Bhutto's and another led by former Prime Minister Nawaz Sharif) boycott the upcoming election. At this point, who really knows what's going to happen.

Secondly, Pakistan already has a problem with militant Islamism in the tribal regions adjacent to the Afghanistan border. The Pakistani military has been fighting them on and off over the last month or so and has suffered serious losses from multiple suicide bombings. Al Qaeda and its Islamist allies have historically tried to use chaotic situations to further their ideological goals. One of the main tactics of Al Qaeda is to force a brutal and violent reaction from the state, in order to make that state on popular with the populace. I have no doubt Al Qaeda and the Taliban will try to use this situation to their benefit. If they can pull it off they will try another suicide bombing in the near future.

In a country beset by Islamist violent radicalism and political turmoil, this assassination could not have come at a worse time. Add nuclear weapons, and you have an equation that equals trouble.

For more info on Benazir Bhutto and the assassination see: Hot Air, Christopher Hitchens, and JammieWearingFool.