Hezbollah: "We've Won"

Hezbollah has seen the fruit of its labors (a.k.a. attacking the government) with the deal reached in Doha, Qatar. Story from the Washington Post.

According to the terms of the deal, Hezbollah will be given 11 seats in a 30-member cabinet -- enough to exercise an effective veto over government policies, as the group had demanded. Army leader Gen. Michel Suleiman will be installed as president, a step the parties had agreed to months ago but which had been delayed by the dispute over cabinet seats and other issues.

The parties also agreed to redraw parliamentary district lines in advance of elections expected next year -- a sensitive matter in a nation where political power is divided by religious affiliation among Shiite and Sunni Muslim and Christian communities.

Significantly, the issue of Hezbollah's arsenal of weapons -- one of the most pressing matters for supporters of the U.S.-backed government of Prime Minister Fouad Siniora -- was left to future negotiations. Hezbollah was the chief military opponent of the Israeli forces that occupied southern Lebanon until 2000. The group has been allowed to keep its arsenal intact -- and used it in a short but damaging war with Israel in the summer of 2006. Hezbollah's recent show of force on the streets of Beirut, when it swiftly occupied key points throughout the city, prompted intense mediation by the Arab League to try to stave off further factional fighting.

[...]

"We've won. We have got what we wanted," said Ali Badran, a 47-year-old Hezbollah supporter. "We were victorious over the American and Zionist project."

Hezbollah (and by extension, Iran and Syria) has been seeking essential autonomy over southern Lebanon and parts of the Bekaa Valley. And this agreement gives them that. Hezbollah and its Shiite allies now have veto power over any decision by the cabinet, thus they keep their weapons. They will have free reign to do whatever they want in territory they control.

However, this victory will cost Hezbollah. First of all, the conflict from May 7-12 has increased sectarian tensions between the Shiites, Sunnis, and the Druze. Hezbollah and got been allied to them attacked and seized Sunni West Beirut. In one particular display of the possible consequences of this increased tension between Sunnis and Shiites occurred when a Sunni funeral was fired upon by a Shiite shopkeeper. Hezbollah also thought the Druze in their mountain heartland south and east of Beirut. However, Hezbollah was largely reposted this attack and suffered heavy casualties. In conclusion, Hezbollah has helped to ratchet up the hostility in Lebanon.

In the end, this will only be Round One. The powder keg that is sectarian tension is there and only needs a spark to light. No one knows what that spark will be but I'm pretty sure it will arise eventually. An important thing to look at is how Hezbollah will take this success. Will they stand pat and and take what they got. Or will they push for more. If it's the latter, things will only get worse in Lebanon.

(Hat tip: Hot Air)